Ekologiya cheloveka (Human Ecology)Ekologiya cheloveka (Human Ecology)Экология человека1728-08692949-1444Eco-Vector11101310.17816/humeco111013ORIGINAL STUDY ARTICLESОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯResearch ArticleImpact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in cities located in the Russian Arctic macroregionОценка зависимости избыточной смертности населения в городах Арктического макрорегиона от температурных волнhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9191-19748513-7517ShaposhnikovDmitry A.ШапошниковДмитрий Анатольевич
Russian Federation

Cand. Sci. (Phys. and Math.)

к.ф.-м.н.

dshap2014@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7528-6643559410850008098-1930RevichBoris A.РевичБорис Александрович
Russian Federation

MD, Dr. Sci. (Med.), professor

д.м.н., профессор

brevich@yandex.ruInstitute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of SciencesИнститут народнохозяйственного прогнозирования Российской академии наук27072023150820233042873002209202211042023Copyright ©; 2023, Eco-VectorCopyright ©; 2023, Эко-Вектор2023Eco-VectorЭко-Векторhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0https://hum-ecol.ru/1728-0869/article/view/111013

BACKGROUND: Climate warming in Russia is most pronounced in the Arctic, where it is accompanied by an increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves. This emerging risk factor for the health of the population in major cities has not yet received adequate scientific attention. To effectively plan for adaptation to these phenomena, it is crucial to understand their specific impacts in regions with different climate types. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of the associations between climatic factors and health is needed for informed decision-making and strategic adaptation planning.

AIM: To assess the impact of heat waves and cold spells on excess age-specific mortality within the urban populations of the Arctic macroregion. Furthermore, we analyzed the potential differences in the studied outcomes across climate types, ranging from marine to continental.

METHODS: We analyzed the daily counts of deaths in Arkhangelsk, Magadan, Murmansk, and Yakutsk from 1999 through 2019. Poisson generalized linear regression models were employed to determine the relative mortality risks during heat waves and cold spells. All models accounted for potential lagged effects, seasonal and weekly patterns, and long-term mortality trends. Pearson’s chi-squared tests were used to study the differences between the effects of heat and cold, as well as site-specific and age-specific variations in mortality.

RESULTS: Effects of the studied climatic phenomena were more pronounced in continental — than in marine climate. The age group 65+ years was more susceptible to the effects of extreme heat and cold than the middle-age group. Cold spells had a greater impact on the health of the residents of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and Magadan than heat waves, while the opposite was observed in Yakutsk. Cerebrovascular mortality during heath waves was 1.69 (95% CI: 1.34–2.13) times as high as during periods with normal temperature in the age-group 65+ in Yakutsk while cold spells were associated with 1.54 (95% CI: 1.18–2.01) greater risk of death from respiratory causes in the same age-group in Arkhangelsk.

CONCLUSION: Our findings can be utilized by public health authorities to effectively prevent further fatalities among subarctic populations during heatwaves and cold spells.

Введение. Потепление климата в России наиболее выражено в Арктическом макрорегионе, где оно сопровождается увеличением частоты и длительности волн жары. Новый значимый фактор риска здоровью населения наиболее крупных городов ещё недостаточно изучен. Для научного обоснования планов адаптации к этим явлениям необходимы параметры таких воздействий на территориях с различным типом климата.

Цель. Оценить избыточную смертность во время волн жары и холода среди населения Арктического макрорегиона разного возраста, в том числе установить различия, которые могут быть связаны с типом субарктического климата — от морского до континентального.

Методы. Для оценки относительного увеличения причинно-возрастных коэффициентов ежедневной смертности во время периодов жары и холодов использована обобщённая Пуассоновская регрессионная модель суточной смертности с поправкой на отсроченный характер воздействия, а также с учётом сезонного, еженедельного и многолетнего тренда. Анализ групповых различий полученных результатов оценки риска между холодом и жарой, а также между городами и возрастными группами проведён с применением критерия Пирсона χ2.

Результаты. Статистическая значимость полученных оценок эффекта больше в континентальном климате, чем в морском. Влияние как холода, так и жары было более выражено в возрастной группе 65+, чем в среднем возрасте. Волны холода сильнее влияли на смертность жителей Мурманска, Архангельска и Магадана, чем аномальная жара; в Якутске аномальная жара была опаснее холода. Наибольшие значения относительного риска были получены в возрастной группе 65+: во время волн жары в Якутске — 1,69 (95% ДИ: 1,34–2,13) для смертности от цереброваскулярных заболеваний; во время волн холода в Архангельске — 1,54 (95% ДИ: 1,18–2,01) для смертности от болезней органов дыхания.

Заключение. Результаты этого исследования будут основой для разработки плана действий по предотвращению избыточной смертности среди населения Арктического макрорегиона во время волн жары и холода.

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