Ekologiya cheloveka (Human Ecology)Ekologiya cheloveka (Human Ecology)Экология человека1728-08692949-1444Eco-Vector59593710.17816/humeco595937SYSTEMATIC REVIEWSСИСТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ ОБЗОРЫReview ArticleStatistical approaches for assessing excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping reviewСтатистические подходы к оценке избыточной смертности: обзор предметного поля на примере пандемии COVID-19https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5179-5737KriegerEkaterina A.КригерЕкатерина Анатольевна
Russian Federation

md, cand. sci. (med.), mph, associate professor

к.м.н., доцент

kate-krieger@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4982-4169PostoevVitaly A.ПостоевВиталий Александрович
Russian Federation

md, cand. sci. (med.), mph, phd, associate professor

к.м.н., доцент

ispha@nsmu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5464-0498GrjibovskiAndrej М.ГржибовскийАндрей Mечиславович
Russian Federation
a.grjibovski@yandex.ruNorthern State Medical UniversityСеверный государственный медицинский университетNorthern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. LomonosovСеверный (Арктический) федеральный университет им. М.В. Ломоносова08112023211220233074834982909202330102023Copyright ©; 2023, Eco-VectorCopyright ©; 2023, Эко-Вектор2023Eco-VectorЭко-Векторhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0https://hum-ecol.ru/1728-0869/article/view/595937

Excess mortality is a measure of the increase in the number of deaths in a population during a certain time period compared to the expected values. This phenomenon can be triggered by a variety of natural or man-made disasters. Throughout the global COVID-19 pandemic, all countries experienced a rise in mortality rates, although not all deaths were directly caused by the coronavirus infection. Estimation of excess mortality during a pandemic, particularly stratified by the leading causes of death, is an important public health issue. The outcomes of these calculations, however, can vary significantly depending on the methodological approaches employed to estimate excess mortality.

The aim of this study was to provide a systematic review of the analytical methods used by the international research community to quantify excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Full-text publications in both Russian and English, published between 2020 and 2022, that focused on assessing excess mortality during the COVID-19 were reviewed. The search for English-language publications was conducted in the MEDLINE database (www.pubmed.gov), while Russian-language publications were sourced from the scientific electronic library database eLIBRARY.RU (www.elibrary.ru). Out of the 725 publications initially identified, we included 83 original studies in this review. Among the various statistical methods employed to estimate excess mortality, the most utilized approaches were Poisson regression with correction for overdispersion and a range of adaptive models based on autoregression and integrated moving average. The selection of a specific model depended on factors such as the duration of the existing time series, its characteristics, and the forecasting interval.

This review may serve as a resource for Russian-speaking researchers and analysts seeking guidance on selecting an appropriate analytical approach when examining excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia.

Избыточная смертность определяется как временное увеличение смертности в популяции по сравнению с ожидаемой. Она может быть обусловлена различными природными или техногенными катастрофами. В период пандемии новой коронавирусной инфекции (COVID-19) во всех странах мира наблюдалось увеличение смертности, однако далеко не все летальные случаи были вызваны непосредственно коронавирусной инфекцией. Оценка избыточной смертности во время пандемии, особенно в разрезе основных причин смерти, представляет собой важную задачу общественного здравоохранения. Результаты расчётов, однако, могут сильно различаться в зависимости от используемых методологических подходов к оценке избыточной смертности.

Целью данной работы стал обзор аналитических подходов к количественной оценке избыточной смертности в период пандемии COVID-19. Для исследования были систематически отобраны полнотекстовые публикации на русском и английском языке, опубликованные в 2020–2022 гг., посвящённые оценке избыточной смертности в период пандемии COVID-19. Поиск полнотекстовых англоязычных публикаций проводили в базе данных MEDLINE (www.pubmed.gov), русскоязычных — в базе данных научной электронной библиотеки eLIBRARY.RU (www.elibrary.ru). Из 725 идентифицированных публикаций в обзор включено 83 оригинальных исследования. Наиболее часто используемыми статистическими методами для оценки избыточной смертности были регрессия Пуассона с коррекцией на избыточную дисперсию и ряд адаптивных моделей, основанных на авторегрессии и проинтегрированном скользящем среднем. Выбор модели основывался на длительности имеющегося вариационного ряда, его характеристик и интервала для прогнозирования.

Данный обзор может служить отправной точкой для выбора аналитического подхода при анализе избыточной смертности во время пандемии COVID-19 в субъектах Российской Федерации.

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