Health risks analysis and complex procedure for estimating the efficiency of targeted activities performed within regional public healthcare systems and aimed at reducing mortality among the population caused by cardiovascular diseases and oncologic diseases
- Authors: Zaitseva N.V.1, Kiryanov D.A.1, Kamaltdinov M.R.1, Ustinova O.Y.1, Babina S.V.1, Tsinker M.Y.1, Chigvintsev V.M.1
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Affiliations:
- Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies
- Issue: Vol 65, No 4 (2021)
- Pages: 302-309
- Section: HEALTH CARE ORGANIZATION
- Submitted: 25.10.2024
- URL: https://hum-ecol.ru/0044-197X/article/view/637698
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.47470/0044-197X-2021-65-4-302-309
- ID: 637698
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Full Text
Abstract
Introduction. Preservation and growth of the country population is the top national priority in the Russian Federation. A contemporary approach focuses on several especially urgent demographic issues that can be resolved, among other things, due to public healthcare systems becoming more efficient. The present research work is vital due to the necessity to achieve target medical and demographic parameters fixed in the national and federal projects and regional programs. These parameters include life expectancy and mortality caused by cardiovascular and oncologic diseases.
The goal of this work is a development of new approaches for the complex evaluation of potential management reserves of health population indicators and the prognosis of efficiency of targeted activities performed within public healthcare systems and aimed at increasing life expectancy through reducing mortality among the population caused by cardiovascular diseases and oncologic diseases.
Material and methods. The work dwells on solving a “direct” task in the “medical activities — morbidity — mortality” triple analysis system; the solution involves predicting changes in morbidity and mortality under preset, planned, or scenario changes in parameters related to the public healthcare system. We modelled cause-and-effect relations in the above system, applying mathematical statistics techniques (correlation-regression analysis and factor analysis) with the consequent medical expertise of obtained results.
Results. These procedures allow assessing health losses and spot out priorities in activities performed within the public healthcare system as well as ranking managerial decisions, already taken or only planned, as per their efficiency, taking into account territories; sex and age structure of the population; diseases, their subclasses and gravity; specific activities performed within the public healthcare system (prevention, diagnostics, or treatment). We should stress that the most significant potential management reserves of reducing mortality are achieved on territories with maximum mortality levels due to reserves for the reduction in it; these reserves are manageable due to prevention and early diagnostics.
Conclusion. Research techniques and results described in the present work can be used in practice to achieve target parameters fixed by national and regional priorities and to select an optimal set of activities aimed at reducing mortality among the population.
About the authors
Nina V. Zaitseva
Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies
Author for correspondence.
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2356-1145
Russian Federation
Dmitriy A. Kiryanov
Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5406-4961
Russian Federation
Marat R. Kamaltdinov
Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies
Email: kmr@fcrisk.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0969-9252
Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Senior researcher, acting as the Head of the Laboratory for Situational Modeling and expert and Analytical Management Techniques, Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies, Perm, 614045, Russian Federation.
e-mail: kmr@fcrisk.ru
Russian FederationOlga Yu. Ustinova
Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9916-5491
Russian Federation
Svetlana V. Babina
Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9222-6805
Russian Federation
Mikhail Yu. Tsinker
Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2639-5368
Russian Federation
Vladimir M. Chigvintsev
Federal Scientific Center for Medical and Preventive Health Risk Management Technologies
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0345-3895
Russian Federation
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