Population movement in the Republic of Bashkortostan: a multi-factor analysis on panel data
- Authors: Askarov R.A.1, Frants M.V.2, Askarova Z.F.3, Utyasheva I.B.4, Abdrakhmanova G.M.3
-
Affiliations:
- Russian State Geological Prospecting University
- Ufa State Aviation Technical University
- Bashkir State Medical University
- Territorial Agency of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Bashkortostan
- Issue: Vol 65, No 2 (2021)
- Pages: 96-104
- Section: HEALTH CARE ORGANIZATION
- Submitted: 25.10.2024
- URL: https://hum-ecol.ru/0044-197X/article/view/637703
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.47470/0044-197X-2021-65-2-96-104
- ID: 637703
Cite item
Full Text
Abstract
Introduction. The study deals with natural movement of the population in the Republic of Bashkortostan at the regional and municipal levels.
The aim of the study is to assess the factors affecting the natural movement of the population of the Republic of Bashkortostan (RB).
Material and methods. The information base was the official statistical materials of the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Bashkortostan: collections “Demographic Processes in the Republic of Bashkortostan”, “Socio-Economic Situation of Municipal Areas and Urban Districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan”; Rosstat data: collections “Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indices”. We considered data consisting of observations on rural municipalities in RB 54 municipal districts and 21 cities (urban communities and urban settleme;ts), tracked in dynamics for 16 years (2002–2017). At the first stage, municipalities were divided into five groups using cluster analysis based on natural growth indices. Then, to study the influence of medico-demographic, socio-infrastructural, socio-economic factors on the indices of the population’s natural movement, multivariate regression analysis was used. Due to the panel nature of the data, models with fixed individual and time effects were used.
Results. In the studied groups of municipalities, formed using cluster analysis, the significance of individual factors in terms of their influence on the performance indicator is significantly different, which necessitates taking this spatial heterogeneity into account when developing socio-economic policy measures. To confirm the existence of a relationship between the rate of natural population growth and per capita money income, the general rate of marriages, divorces, the proportion of women of fertile age, unemployment, and the ratio of the population over working age, we based the constructed regression models with fixed effects on panel data
Conclusion. Analysis of the results obtained and comparing them with the literature data allow us to determine the priorities of socio-economic, demographic policy at the regional level.
About the authors
Rasul A. Askarov
Russian State Geological Prospecting University
Author for correspondence.
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7980-4113
Russian Federation
Marina V. Frants
Ufa State Aviation Technical University
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5324-2463
Russian Federation
Zagira F. Askarova
Bashkir State Medical University
Email: zagira_a@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9772-1311
MD, Ph.D., DSci., Professor of the Department of Hospital Therapy No. 2, Bashkir State Medical University, Ufa, 450008, Russian Federation.
e-mail: zagira_a@mail.ru
Russian FederationIrina B. Utyasheva
Territorial Agency of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Bashkortostan
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6444-1452
Russian Federation
Guzel M. Abdrakhmanova
Bashkir State Medical University
Email: noemail@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8848-0181
Russian Federation
References
- Gorina E.A., Burdyak A.Ya. Quality of life in big city through the urban environment perceptions. Sotsiologiya goroda. 2015; (2): 11–31. (in Russian)
- Demographic Processes in the Republic of Bashkortostan: Statistical Collection [Demograficheskie protsessy v Respublike Bashkortostan: Statisticheskiy sbornik]. Ufa: Bashkortostanstat; 2000-2018. (in Russian)
- Demographic Yearbook of Russia [Demograficheskiy ezhegodnik Rossii]. Moscow: Rosstat; 2000-2017. (in Russian)
- Socio-Economic Situation of Municipal Districts and Urban Districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan: Statistical Collection [Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie munitsipal’nykh rayonov i gorodskikh okrugov Respubliki Bashkortostan: Statisticheskiy sbornik]. Ufa: Bashkortostanstat; 2000-2018. (in Russian)
- Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators. Statistical Collection [Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. Statisticheskiy sbornik]. Moscow: Rosstat; 2002-2018. (in Russian)
- Ratnikova T.A., Furmanov K.K. Analysis of Panel Data and Data on the Duration of States [Analiz panel’nykh dannykh i dannykh o dlitel’nosti sostoyaniy]. Moscow; 2014. (in Russian)
- Isakin M.A. Modification of the k-means method with an unknown number of classes. Prikladnaya ekonometrika. 2006; (4): 62–73. (in Russian)
- Plyuta V. Wielowymiarowa analiza porownawcza w badaniach ekonomicznych: Metody taksonomiczne i analizy czynnikowej. Warszawa: Państwowe Wydaw. Ekonomiczne; 1977. (in Polish)
- Askarov R.A., Karelin A.O., Lakman I.A., Rozanova L.F., Askarova Z.F. Segmentation of territories of the Republic of Bashkortostan on the level of mortality from malignant neoplasms. Zdravookhranenie Rossiyskoy Federatsii. 2019; 63(1): 4–13. https://doi.org/10.18821/0044-197X-2019-63-1-4-13 (in Russian)
- Tapilina V.S. Socio-economic status and population’s health. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya. 2004; (3): 126–37. (in Russian)
Supplementary files
