Changes in mortality, life expectancy and the rate of aging in the XX century: possible causes

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Abstract

Introduction. The rapid aging of the world and Russian population and the associated medical, demographic, and socioeconomic problems determine the increased interest in the issue of aging. 

Aim and objectives. to study the features and causes of changes in age-related mortality, life expectancy (LE), and aging in Russia in the second half of the XX century compared to other countries. 

Material and methods. We used the Human Mortality Database survival tables to estimate the expected and maximum life expectancy. The aging rate was calculated using the Gompertz–Makeham formula and the increment of total mortality. Graphs were built using Microsoft Office Excel’s standard tools and the computer program Aging of Populations developed by us. 

Results. Until the middle of the XX century, significant aging rate changes did not accompany a sharp increase in Le. Later with a relatively small increase in LE, it decreases sharply. Deceleration of aging was observed for all studied countries (from 12 to 36 for different available historical periods) for all studied parameters and progresses to the end of the studied period. For Russia, the decline in the aging rate that began simultaneously 7 with other countries in 1960–1970's slows down and is restored only by 2000. 

Discussion. Improvements in living conditions and health outcomes lead to an increase in the proportion of the elderly population structure. However, these same processes reduce the rate of individual aging. Improving medical and social care for retired people reduces their mortality rate. Still, it produces a phenomenon of delayed mortality in later ages (the phenomenon of inversion of centenarians’ total mortality – from reduced to increased). Nevertheless, the use of the mortality rate increment indicator shows that the decline in the aging rate for centenarians persists. 

Conclusion. The identified trends in mortality are useful for developing areas of preventive and socio-medical impact on the population’s health.

About the authors

Vitaly I. Dontsov

Federal Research Center «Computer Science and Control»

Author for correspondence.
Email: dontsovvi@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2234-4715

MD, lead researcher of the Department 102 of Institute for Systems Analysis, Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control” of Russian Academy of Sciences. Moscow, 117312, Russian Federation.

e-mail: dontsovvi@mail.ru

Russian Federation

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