Overview of Russian and global long-term healthcare forecasts (literature review)

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Abstract

In the 21st century, more and more attention is paid to long-term forecasts for the development of countries, regions and the world as a whole; the scope of their application is expanding, including the coverage of social sectors, and, above all, healthcare. Acquaintance with the existing foreign and domestic practice of developing long-term forecasts can be useful not only for those involved in their development, but also for decision makers in the healthcare sector.

The purpose is generalization and systematization of published long-term forecasts in healthcare. Systematic search for publications according to the developed protocol. The protocol included databases of peer-reviewed publications, search terms, and search restrictions. The search for publications was carried out in the databases including Embase, Medline, Scopus, RSCI, etc. The search query was carried out using a combination of terms “free text” and “medical subject headings” related to the definition of long-term forecasts in healthcare. The main search restrictions were the language of publications, the date of publication and the forecast period covered. Conducting a comprehensive analysis, generalization and systematization of the information received on published foreign and domestic long-term forecasts in the field of healthcare, covering forecasts for the world as a whole, its regions and the Russian Federation. The long-term forecasts are most widespread in certain areas of healthcare development. Comprehensive forecasts covering several aspects of system development are less common. Quantitative forecasting methods are used more often, qualitative methods are mainly used in forecasting the technological development of the sector.

Conclusion. Studying international experience, strengthening the Russian institutional base for conducting comprehensive long-term forecasts in healthcare will contribute to a better understanding of possible scenarios for the sector development and increase the state ability to respond in a timely manner to the economic, environmental and social changes taking place in the country.

Acknowledgment. The study was carried out as part of a study by the Center for Fundamental Research of the National Research University “Higher School of Economics”.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest. 

Received: September 07, 2022
Accepted: February 07, 2023
Published: July 06, 2023

About the authors

Elena G. Potapchik

National Research University “Higher School of Economics”

Author for correspondence.
Email: epotapchik@hse.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7004-3100

MD, PhD, associate professor, leading researcher, National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation.

e-mail: epotapchik@hse.ru 

Russian Federation

References

  1. Sokolov A.V. Foresight: a look into the future. Forsayt. 2007; 1(1): 8–15. https://www.elibrary.ru/mhhlrr (in Russian)
  2. Mathers C.D., Loncar D. Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med. 2006; 3(11): e442. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442
  3. Hughes B.B., Kuhn R., Peterson C.M., Rothman D.S., Solórzano J.R., Mathers C.D., et al. Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model. Bull. World Health Organ. 2011; 89(7): 478–86. https://doi.org/10.2471/blt.10.083766
  4. Kontis V., Bennett J.E., Mathers C.D., Li G., Foreman K., Ezzati M. Future life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble. Lancet. 2017; 389(10076): 1323–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(16)32381-9
  5. Wang Y., Wang J. Modelling and prediction of global non-communicable diseases. BMC Public Health. 2020; 20(1): 822. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-08890-4
  6. Wild S., Roglic G., Green A., Sicree R., King H. Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030. Diabetes Care. 2004; 27(5): 1047–53. https://doi.org/10.2337/diacare.27.5.1047
  7. Saeedi P., Petersohn I., Salpea P., Malanda B., Karuranga S., Unwin N., et al. Global and regional diabetes prevalence estimates for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition. Diabetes Res. Clin. Pract. 2019; 157: 107843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2019.107843
  8. Khan M.A., Soteriades E.S., King J., Govender R., Hashim M.J., Masood-Husain S., et al. Global trends and forecast of the burden of adverse effects of medical treatment: epidemiological analysis based on the global burden of disease study. Cureus. 2020; 12(3): e7250. https://doi.org/10.7759/cureus.7250
  9. Public health foresight in light of COVID-19. EuroHealthNet and RIVM; 2021. Available at: https://eurohealthnet.eu/wp-content/uploads/documents/2021/210128_COVID-19PublicHealthForesight_EuroHealthNet-RIVM.pdf
  10. Liu J.X., Goryakin Y., Maeda A., Bruckner T., Scheffler R. Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030. Hum. Resour. Health. 2017; 15(1): 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12960-017-0187-2
  11. Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network. Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: development assistance for health? And government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries. Lancet. 2017; 389(10083): 2005–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30873-5
  12. Global Burden of Disease 2020 Health Financing Collaborator Network Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050. Lancet. 2021; 398(10308): 1317–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01258-7
  13. Lorenzoni L., Marino A., Morgan D., James C. Health Spending Projections to 2030: New results based on a revised OECD methodology. Health Working Papers OECD No. 110; 2019. Available at: https://one.oecd.org/document/DELSA/HEA/WD/HWP(2019)3/En/pdf
  14. Jakovljevic M., Lamnisos D., Westerman R., Chattu V.K., Cerda A. Future health spending forecast in leading emerging BRICS markets in 2030: health policy implications. Health Res. Policy Sys. 2022; 20(1): 23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-022-00822-5
  15. Avksent’ev N.A. Health expenditure forecast in Russia up to 2030. Finansovyy zhurnal. 2017; (1): 63–76. https://elibrary.ru/xwvjof (in Russian)
  16. The Future of Healthcare. The Economist; 2020. Available at: https://thefutureishere.economist.com/healthcare/
  17. Health and Healthcare in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Global Future Council on the Future of Health and Healthcare 2016–2018. World Economic Forum; 2019. Available at: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF__Shaping_the_Future_of_Health_Council_Report.pdf
  18. Abdrakhmanova G.I., Alekseeva N.N., Blinkin M.Ya., Burov V.V., Vaysberg L.A., Vishnevskiy K.O., et al. Forecast of scientific and technological development of Russia: 2030. Moscow; 2014. https://elibrary.ru/tnsfqx (in Russian)
  19. Digital transformation of industries: starting conditions and priorities. HSE Report. Moscow; 2021. Available at: https://conf.hse.ru/mirror/pubs/share/463148459.pdf (in Russian)
  20. Hospitals in the future ‘without’ walls. What does this mean for health care delivery systems in the future? Deloitte Global; 2022. Available at: https://www.deloitte.com/global/en/Industries/life-sciences-health-care/perspectives/hospital-future-without-walls.html
  21. Telugunta R., Gill S., Sumant O. mHealth Market. Allied Market Research; 2020. Available at: https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/mobile-health-market
  22. Global Chronic Disease Management Market – Industry Trends and Forecast to 2029. Data Bridge Market Research; 2022. Available at: https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global-chronic-disease-management-market
  23. From facility to home: How healthcare could shift by 2025. McKinsey & Company; 2022. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare/our-insights/from-facility-to-home-how-healthcare-could-shift-by-2025
  24. Prioritizing health: A prescription for prosperity. McKinsey Global Institute; 2020. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare/our-insights/prioritizing-health-a-prescription-for-prosperity

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML
Download

Copyright (c) 2023 Potapchik E.G.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
СМИ зарегистрировано Федеральной службой по надзору в сфере связи, информационных технологий и массовых коммуникаций (Роскомнадзор).
Регистрационный номер и дата принятия решения о регистрации СМИ:  ПИ № ФС77-50668 от 13.07.2012 г.