卷 59, 编号 3 (2023)

Main directions and evolution routes of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (CEMI) as a leader of domestic economic science in the development and application of economic-mathematical and information-computer models of socio-economic processes and systems were analyzed in the paper. The connection of modeling with such components of the economy as economic theory, economic policy, economic management and economic practice were clarified. It was shown that the economic and mathematical model plays an indispensable role in the integration and systematization of knowledge in the field of economic theory and economic practice. A generalized scheme and the sequence of modeling stages based on the concept of a model as a homomorphic image of a real object in the field of ontology (“the world of things”), ideology (“the world of ideas”), epistemology (“the world of knowledge”) and praxeology (“the world of creation”), were proposed. The evolution of the main components of modeling which had significantly changed over the past 60 years the ideas about the object, subject, goals, apparatus and empirical basis of modeling, were traced. The experience accumulated at CEMI RAS in this area allows us to propose the concept of evidence-based modeling, similar to the ideology of evidence-based medicine, evidence-based policy, evidence-based forecasting, aimed at qualitatively improving the validity and reliability of modeling results for applying in economic theory and practice. The main principles of evidence-based modeling that have to play the role of standards for evidence-based modeling were formulated. The modeling process was considered as an analogue of an innovative project, where every independent stage (likewise the entire project) should be carried out according to these standards. A list of the most important, in our opinion, pioneer works of CEMI RAS in the field of economic-mathematical and computer modeling, which determine significant directions for the further development of this field of science, were given. 

 

In recent years, based on the traditional theory of value — the labor theory of value and the theory of surplus value, as well as the hypothesis of Jevons, Tesla and Foley, — Chinese and Russian scholars have further adopted the mathematical paradigm of theoretical mechanics for reference to establish a mathematical model system for economics, which is called the New theory of value. Compatible with the traditional theory of value, the new theory of value puts forward the idea that the value depends on the force of labor expended in the process of commodity production, and the value appreciation depends on the labor gravitational force generated by the improving dexterity of workmen. That is to say, during the process of production, constant capital and variable capital as kinetic energy and potential energy of value, convert into each other under the value conservation theorem, playing a dominate role in generating value and surplus value of products. In addition, the law of diminishing marginal utility is not an axiom, but a special economic law under unbalanced supply and demand. Obviously, these theoretical conclusions are of great significance, which not only make the traditional theory of value a self-consistent logical system, but also complete the New theory of value by absorbing the rational components from both the classical economics based on the labor theory of value and the theory of surplus value, and the neoclassical economics based on the law of diminishing marginal utility. In this paper, we will analyze this problem by investigating the origin of the law of diminishing marginal utility.

The article presents the pioneer cross-country study results of the formation factors of benefit-oriented official development assistance (ODA), which is defined as aid sent by a donor disinterestedly and in order to improve the welfare of the recipient. In the preliminary data review an original measure of benefit-oriented assistance is proposed, which allows to study transfers in conditions of mixing motives. Subsequent regression analysis of panel data on 18 donors of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development for 2010–2019 shows that a benefit-oriented motive is primarily ensured by a high degree of trust, the prevalence of altruistic behavior in society and the socio-economic welfare of the donor country. There is evidence to suggest that ancillary factors of disinterested assistance are the democratic government structure, tolerance and life satisfaction; in addition, political participation as a factor of altruism has an indirect effect on the motivation of the donor. Calculations also show that an increase in the per capita GDP of the donor can contribute to both benefit-oriented and selfish motives of ODA, while other factors do not demonstrate a similar integral effect. The results obtained confirm and clarify the theoretical conclusions of the philosophy of collaboration regarding the genesis and dissemination of collaborative relationships. These findings can be used to improve the principles and mechanisms of international assistance as well as to forecast the dynamics of benefit-oriented transfers. 

The article is devoted to the problem of high inter-regional differentiation of the economic area of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the research is due to the need to understand the role of the industrial sector in the economic inequality of regions. It is necessary for the systematization of the state regional policy and strategic forecasting of the innovative development of regionally oriented production systems. The purpose of the research was to identify an empirical relationship between the level of economic activity of industrial regions and their sectoral specifics. Based on a large array of statistical data, a long-term increase in the economic inequality of the regions of the Russian Federation and a high level of inter-regional differentiation are shown. During the research, the basic methods of mathematical statistics were used. The regression analysis allowed us to obtain a statistically significant confirmation of the hypothesis: the economic inequality of the regions is largely due to the nature of the industries localized on their territory. Some empirical patterns were also identified and statistically substantiated. It was established that the economy of industrially oriented regions depends mainly on extractive industries: the impact on the economic activity of the regions of the factor of localization of extractive industries is significantly (more than five times) higher than that of manufacturing industries. The results allowed us to conclude that the current trends may lead to further strengthening of inter-regional differentiation of the country's economic space. Also, the current situation entails the threat of deindustrialization of those regions that are now characterized by the concentration of high-tech industries. The research provides additional data support for industrial and structural policy priorities. 

This article examines the possible risks for health insurance funds due to an ageing population and the prevalence of infectious diseases in the world. By analyzing the structural differences between the existing health insurance funding systems in China and Russia, and using a Gray's model and an autoregressive model to forecast the existing flows of health insurance funds in Russia and China. The results of the forecasting model are then incorporated into a subsequent management model in order to propose optimisations for the future management of health insurance systems in both countries. The novelty of this paper lies not only in the analysis of the structure of the health insurance financing system, but also in the use of a predictive model to propose optimised management decisions for the future development of health insurance. The results provide theoretical support as well as guidance for national health insurance management. The results of the optimized management model for Russian health insurance show that the optimized solution not only improves the financing gap well, but also leaves a balance.

Abstract: The dynamic model of economic growth of several agents is presented. This is a system of non-linear differential-difference equations. The model takes into account the interaction of economic agents and the delay effect. Some simple analytic particular solutions are shown. These analytical solutions allow some clear economic interpretation. The comparative scenario quantitative calculations are given. The calculations are presented for time period of a decade for the typical global development rate of 3% per year. There are two main scenarios. The first scenario of cooperative or isolated agent development is considered. There is the scenario of the agent development due to use the other partners. The consequence of isolation is the backlog of 60% per decade. The second scenario is the time delay-lead effect to use the achievements of other agents. A lead of one - two years is considered. In this case, ceteris paribus, the dynamic growth of the agent is 1.5 times ahead of the others. More effective growth occurs with the faster and advance reaction rate to partner achievements. In this case there is the effect of the multiplicative accumulation of advantage. This scenario can be interpreted as the illustration of the accelerated economic growth of post-war Japan.