MARRIAGES AND DIVORCES IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SAKHA (YAKUTIA) FOR THE PERIOD 2000-2022

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INTRODUCTION

The modernization processes that are taking place in modern society affect all spheres of people’s lives, including the sphere of marriage and family relations: the age of marriage is increasing, the number of divorces is growing, and the marriage rate is decreasing [1].

Today, there is a sufficient number of studies devoted to this topic, and most publications indicate a trend towards a decrease in the number of marriages and an increase in divorces. Thus, a comparative description of marriage and divorce rates in the Russian Federation and other countries is presented in the work of Abusheva Kh.K. Shamileva S.R. [2]. The problems of marriage and divorce rates and ways to solve them in the Russian Federation, starting from 1950, are disclosed in works edited by. Ryazantseva S.V. [1], as well as Antonov V.G. (2015) and Kovanova E.S. et al. (2020) [3, 4]. The same problems in the modern history of Russia are discussed in the works of Davletshina L.A., Dolgikh E.A. (2018), Zaitseva Yu.V., Sysoeva E.A. (2023), Sherifova A.F. et al. (2021) [5-7].

These problems in federal districts and individual regions are also of interest to researchers; for example, there are works on the North Caucasian Federal District [2, 8], Far Eastern Federal District and Jewish Autonomous Okrug [9, 10], and Krasnodar Territory [11]. Similar studies were carried out in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), as well as in foreign countries [12-13]. At the same time, it turned out that there are very few scientific studies devoted to the assessment of marriage and divorce rates in the Arctic zone, both in the Russian Federation as a whole and in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) [14, 15].

The main national interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic, according to the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On the Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic for the period until 2035” dated 03/05/2020 No. 164, are, inter alia, ensuring a high quality of life and well-being of the population of the Arctic zone Russian Federation [16]. At the same time, one of the main threats to national security in the Arctic is the reduction in the population of the Arctic zone, including on the territory of our republic. So, in the work of Burtseva T.E. et al. (2022) notes that over a 20-year period (2000-2020) in the Arctic regions of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the population decreased by 22.1%, including the working-age population - by 21.5%, the child population – by 32.2%; the depopulation coefficient was 0.78 in 2020 [17].

Currently, the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) includes 13 districts (uluses): Abyisky, Allaikhovsky, Anabarsky, Bulunsky, Verkhnekolymsky, Verkhoyansky, Zhigansky, Momsky, Nizhnekolymsky, Oleneksky, Srednekolymsky, Ust-Yansky and Eveno-Bytantaysky. These uluses are characterized by harsh climatic and geographical conditions, a small population with a vast area of territory, poor development of transport infrastructure, etc., which cannot but affect the health of the population, including the medical and demographic situation. And the medical and demographic situation is also influenced by marriages and divorces in a given territory.

TARGET. Analysis and assessment of the dynamics of marriage and divorce rates in the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the period 2000-2022.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Statistical indicators are taken from official sources of the Federal State Statistics Service (FSGS, Rosstat) and the Territorial Authority (TO) of the FSGS for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) [18-20]. Initially, using the percentile method, the situation was calculated for all administrative-territorial entities (districts/uluses) of the republic. According to this method, uluses with indicators up to the 10th percentile were classified as territories with a low level of one or another indicator, from the 10th to 25th percentile - with a level below average, from 75 to 90th - above average and above 90th percentiles – with a high level. Obviously, with indicators ranging from the 25th to 75th percentile, the uluses belonged to the group with average values.

Then the indicated 13 uluses included in the Arctic zone were identified for further analysis. At the same time, the levels of indicators (low, below average, average, above average and high) for each ulus are indicated in a comparative aspect with all districts/uluses of the republic.

The method of correlation analysis was also used: the correlation coefficients between the marriage rate and the birth rate of the population in the Arctic uluses of the republic were calculated.

RESULTS

Population of the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Before considering the marriage and divorce rates in the Arctic zone of uluses/regions over a 23-year period of the 21st century (2000-2022), let us pay attention to the population size in these uluses. Thus, according to the FSGS technical data for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), in terms of population, the majority of uluses in the Arctic zone were the smallest (Table 1).

 

Judging by Table 1, most uluses are characterized by a decline in population compared to the previous year (symbol ↓). And only Oleneksky and Eveno-Bytantaysky uluses have had a positive growth trend in this indicator over the past 5 years.

Marriages and divorces. Of no small importance for assessing demographic processes in a given territory is the state of marriage and divorce rates. If we compare marriage rates in the whole of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), then before 2019 they were quite comparable, but since 2020 their levels have been lower in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (Table 1).

General marriage and divorce rates in the Arctic uluses are presented in Tables 2 and 3 (levels in comparison with all municipalities of the republic). It can be seen that if in 2000 8 uluses had marriage rates worse than the average for the republic, then by the end of 2022 there are already 11.

 

The above is illustrated by a pairwise comparison of average marriage rates for the republic and the Arctic zone (Fig. 1).

 

It can be seen that in the Arctic zone, as well as in the republic as a whole, wave-like dynamics of marriage rates are characteristic. At the same time, the lowest coefficients for this indicator were observed in 2020, which is not surprising, given the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to a pairwise comparison of divorce rates for the whole republic and the Arctic zone, a more positive picture is noted in the Arctic uluses (Fig. 2).

 

In addition, we carried out paired calculations of correlation coefficients (r) between marriage and birth rates for the period 2010-2022. Indicators r 0.31 and higher were taken into account, i.e. with moderate to moderate correlations. It turned out that 8 out of 13 Arctic uluses have an r value above 0.31, in other words, we can confirm the well-known truth that the more married couples register their relationships, the more children are born.

Taking into account time lags, we also carried out such calculations when marriage rates for 2010-2021 were taken into one array, and birth rates for 2011-2022 into another. This refers to those patterns when one of the observed factors in one calendar year can give the expected results in the next calendar year. As expected, already in 10 uluses more or less significant correlation coefficients were observed, and in another 2 uluses they received borderline values (0.29-0.30).

DISCUSSION

First, a little about the marriage rate of the population in 2000-2009. The dynamics of the marriage rate in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), as well as in the Russian Federation, is characterized by a tendency to increase from 6.8 in 2004 to 8.4 in 2009 (per 1000 inhabitants), the growth rate was 23.5% [21]. In the next 6 years from 2010 to 2015. Marriage rates fluctuated from 8.7 in 2010 (the maximum value was 9.4 in 2011) to 8.0 in 2015, and in 2016-2021. – within 7.1-4.6.

Over the entire period under review, in the Verkhoyansk and Srednekolymsky uluses, marriage rates were observed lower than the republican average; in another 3 uluses (Verhekolymsky, Momsky and Ust-Yansky) there were isolated cases when the number of marriages per 1000 population was higher than the republican average. And there is not a single ulus where only relatively high or at least average marriage rates per 1000 population were observed. On the contrary, during this period, the Abyisky and Srednekolymsky uluses entered the group with a low marriage rate, and the Verkhoyansk, Momsky and Eveno-Bytantaysky uluses entered the group with a below-average marriage rate. Moreover, in a number of uluses in some years even high levels of this indicator were observed. For example, Allaikhovsky (2000, 2020 and 2022), Anabarsky (2018 and 2021), Zhigansky (2010 and 2016) and Eveno-Bytantaysky (2000 and 2017) uluses were different. However, they did not become significant against the general background of the relatively low marriage rate in the Arctic uluses.

A comparative description of the divorce rates in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) allows us to draw almost the same conclusions as for marriages - since 2020, lower levels have been observed in our republic.

Table 3 also shows that in most uluses there is a more favorable picture compared to the marriage rate of the population. So, according to the coefficients for 2000-2022. the best positions are in the Olenek and Eveno-Bytantai uluses (low level of divorce), and then in the Anabar and Momsky uluses (below average level). However, in the Verkhnekolyma ulus there is a relatively high divorce rate.

At the same time, the relatively favorable divorce rate situation does not make a significant contribution to improving the medical and demographic situation in the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) as a whole. To rectify the situation, primarily in order to ensure conditions for population growth, drastic measures are needed, both on the scale of the republic and within the framework of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic regions.

CONCLUSION

Thus, the analysis of marriage and divorce rates in the regions (uluses) representing the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the period 2000-2022. showed the following.

In terms of marriages and divorces, the Arctic zone as a whole is characterized by relatively low levels of both marriage and divorce rates. Low marriage rates generally correlate with low birth rates. It is not surprising that almost all uluses of AZ are small in population, and only 2 uluses are experiencing population growth in 2023 compared to 2010.

It should be noted that both in the Russian Federation as a whole and in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), much is being done in terms of maternal and childhood protection, state support in connection with the birth of children, material incentives for large families, etc. However, using the example of the Arctic uluses, we are convinced that these measures are not entirely sufficient to create new families, the birth rate of children, and population growth. Apparently, there is a need for additional, more energetic measures for the socio-economic development of the Arctic zone in order to radically improve the quality of life of the population, retain personnel in various areas of the economy locally, improve social and living conditions, etc.

Recommendations. To unconditionally improve the medical and demographic situation in the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), it is proposed:

1. Conduct constant monitoring of the medical and demographic situation, which is a significant criterion of public health, in all 13 uluses of the Arctic zone.
2. The heads of municipalities should pay more attention to demographic and family policy, including social support for young and large families; it is necessary to more actively participate in the implementation of the National Projects “Demography”, “Healthcare”, and in the near future - the National Project “Family”, in their areas.

 

Legend:

3.7 level is low for population, marriage rate and high for divorce rate

4.8 level below average for population, marriage rate and above average for divorce rate

8.3 level above average for population, marriage rate and below average for divorce rate

9.8 level is low for divorce rate, and high for population size, marriage rate

 

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Authors' contributions. All authors confirm that their authorship meets the international ICMJE criteria. All authors contributed equally to the concept development, conduct of the study and preparation of the article, and read and approved the final version before publication.

Financing. This article was prepared as part of the research work “Efficiency of the healthcare system of the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in the context of innovative development: analysis and forecast” (State Contract No. 7161, 2023).

Conflict of interest. The authors declare that there are no obvious or potential conflicts of interest related to the publication of this article.

About the authors

Leonid Timofeev

North-Eastern Federal University named M.K. Ammosov

Author for correspondence.
Email: tlfnauka@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1849-3504

Доктор медицинских наук, профессор кафедры организации здравоохранения и профилактической медицины

Russian Federation

Nadezhda Valerievna Savvina

Email: nadvsavvina@mail.ru

Artem Leonidovitch Timofeev

Email: ovlirykt@mail.ru

References

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